With Reference to Alternative Research, Critically Assess Bennett-Levy and Marteau’s Research

There is much research to support the idea of preparedness in the acquisition of phobias, just like Bennett-levy and Marteau have done, however many studies use non-human animals, and use experimental research methods. Cook & Mineka (1989) found that rhesus monkeys could acquire fear through social learning to fear relevant stimuli (toy snakes and crocodiles) but not of fear-irrelevant stimuli (flowers and a toy rabbit). Subsequently, Cook & Mineka (1990), again using rhesus monkeys, showed them edited videotapes of models reacting fearfully to toy snakes and non-fearfully to artificial flowers or vice versa.The observers only acquired a fear in the former condition, i. e. when they watched a monkey responding with fear to a snake. However, there is experimental research that shows that humans can show preparedness. Ohman and Soares (1998) showed that participants could be conditioned more quickly when associated with fear-relevant material, e. g. pictures of snakes or spiders, than when paired with fear-irrelevant material, e. g. picture of flowers or mushrooms. Again showing that fear is more readily associated with some things but not others.Bennett-Levy and Marteau deliberately removed the idea that the animals were harmful; however is this not a reason to fear an animal? One biological imperative for fear is risk of disease. Matchett & Davey (1991) and Ware et al (1994) looked at the relationship between animal fears relating to contamination and to likelihood of attack. They investigated fear of predatory animals and other fear-relevant animals. Both groups of animals elicited fear but only the animals carrying a risk of disease also elicited disgust.Those participants with the greatest fear of the ‘disgusting’ animals also scored highly on scales such as fear of illness and obsessive washing. Further support for this idea comes from Davey et al (1998) who conducted a cross-cultural study into animal fears. They found that, although cultures share fear for animals which are fierce, the greatest similarity was in those eliciting disgust; again indicating a link between phobias and animal-borne disease. The distinction between fear of fierce and infection-risk animals is demonstrated by experimental evidence from Davey et al (2003).They found that people will tend to become classically conditioned to pain responses associated with predatory animals (i. e. fierce ones). Disgustrelated unconditioned stimuli, however, were more readily associated with lowpredation animals (i. e. ones with a disease risk) than with safe ones. There does seem to be reasons for fearing animals, but in the modern comfortable existence that many enjoy, there are few natural things that will damage us and we have little reason to fear, but phobias are one of the commonest disorders in our society.

o what extent is Measure For Measure a conventional comedy?

Measure For Measure, to all intents and purposes, is not a comedy akin to Much Ado About Nothing or As You Like It. However, I believe it is still a comedy for the simple reason it does not have enough defining features of a tragedy – but most certainly heralds the end of Shakespeare’s comedic run. Traditional Shakespearean comedy includes aspects such as marriage, dramatic irony and largely inconsequential acts by the ‘villain(s)’ of the play. In Measure For Measure we see all three. Marriage is both a resolution and a punishment in this play. Claudio and Juliet are to be wed by the end of the play, finally able to continue their relationship – this is a classic happily ever after sort of ending that the audience were hoping for if not expecting. However, this is the only marriage we as the audience are certain is due to love. The other two, possibly three, are the results of the Duke’s doing – Angelo is to marry his jilted lover and Lucio is to marry a whore. The Duke himself asks for Isabel’s hand in marriage but it is an unresolved aspect of the play. Nevertheless, these are still marriages so do meet my expectations. There is heavy use of wit in this play, the Duke and Lucio often are the source though there are other gibes, for instance Escalus remarking that Pompey in a ‘beastly’ way is Pompey the Great. This pokes fun at the Roman Republic political and military leader Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus – a small yet very witty, very select joke. Deception and disguise are key elements in this play – The Duke’s concealment of himself via the persona of Friar Lodowick, Mariana fooling Angelo into thinking she is Isabel and the use of Ragozine’s head for Claudio’s. These rely on heavy coincidence for the most part which justifies them as comedic features – extending the disbelief. Interestingly, Ragozine is the only death of the play. His total insignificance however means that the audience has no emotional or moral attachment to him and thus he is forgotten somewhat quickly – he is more of a plot device than a character. Indeed, Ragozine’ head, not Ragozine himself is the key part of his involvement. This lack of meaningful death means that death and tragedy are not on the minds of the audience. This also links in with forgiveness – the other pirate, Barnadine, is pardoned by a reinstated Duke regardless of his prior actions and Isabel effectively forgives Angelo, for the sake of helping Mariana yet still forgiveness nonetheless. There are also no reprimands for Escalus for the way he spoke to the Duke under disguise as Friar Lodowick – mainly because Escalus is not a main character. However, the Duke does not forgive Lucio – though his predicament is a humourous one so does not require the soft touch of reconciliation. As touched upon above, the punishments at the end are somewhat unorthodox and fairly incongruous – marriage as a punishment is both an amusing commentary by Shakespeare and soft. For instance, Lucio at first is told that he is set to die, then the tension is released when it is revealed he will not and will instead be married (released tension for the audience at least). During the final scene, all is unravelled and Claudio is reunited with Isabel – this reunification of family is a key feature of Shakespeare’s comedy, seen before in Twelth Night most famously. As mentioned above, Pompey provides humour for the audience and is the fool of the play. Though he is not the only fool. There is Elbow as well and even Lucio to an extent is a fool. In accordance with this, Measure For Measure has the largest portion of fools in its character list of any comedy – perhaps this is balance out the darkness that hangs over most of the play. Regardless, they are still fools and fools are allies of comedy. Lucio as a fool is a brilliant case as almost every scene he is involved with after the inital visit to Angelo is between him and the Duke disguised as the Friar. There is a huge amount of dramatic irony wherein Lucio slanders the Duke unknowingly to the Duke – the audience knows what a terrible mistake he’s making that it’s such delicious irony but the things he says are extremely slanderous, making it all the more amusing for the audience knowing that eventually Lucio will get his comeuppance. Dramatic irony is a classic expectation I'd have of comedy. However, it is understandable why Measure For Measure causes such debate. It was definitely not the same exact genre as Comedy Of Errors with its farcical and outrageous tone. Measure For Measure is an extremely dark play. Its main themes are vice, power and judgement – these are not easily identified as comedic features. There is also no safe place like other comedies have – the entire city of Vienna is under the rule of Angelo and none can hide from him. In this play there is no change in where the characters are like in A Midsummer Night's Dream where they flee the city and enter a wood. Interestingly Angelo wrestles with his conscience through a series of soliliquies, which are supposedly more resemblant of a tragedy. Hamlet has one of the most famous Shakespeare soliloquies – but I'd argue that Benedick in Much Ado About Nothing has soliliquies and Much Ado is a far brighter play. In conclusion, Measure For Measure should be described as a tragicomedy, as it is not definitively either comedy or tragedy. But in terms of comedy or tragedy alone, it is more a comedy than a tragedy and meets my expectations of such far more due to the more numerous comedic features listed above.

MGTU1DB

1. Definitely not appropriate, 2. Probably not appropriate, 3. Undecided, 4. Probably appropriate, and 5. Definitely appropriate __5___ Careful study of trade journals – There is no law that prohibits the access to trade journals. Anyone with a subscription can freely peruse through journal contents. Furthermore, trade journals are reputable sources that collect data through legitimate means. __1___ Wiretapping the telephones of competitors Aside from this being against the law in most countries, it also infringes against the universal right of individuals and other entities to privacy. __4__ Posing as a potential customer to competitors Although there is nothing preventing an entity from doing this, the effort that the competition needs to exert to entertain the â€Å"fake† customer is an unethical burden to impose. This is unless the â€Å"spying† entity intends to avail of the competitor’s goods/services anyway for comparison in which case I see absolutely nothing wrong with it. __4__ Getting loyal customers to put out a phone `request for proposal` soliciting competitors` bids Since these are loyal customers, then the ‘requests for proposal’ are obviously superficial. However, it rests on the shoulders of the competitors to weed out these superficial requests and not give in to them. __5__ Buying competitors` products and taking them apart It’s called reverse engineering. If you pay for something, then you have the right to learn as much as you can from it. Of course, this is strictly on an information gathering perspective. Copying the work and selling it is subject to a whole other set of rules. __2__ Hiring management consultants who have worked for competitors I see nothing wrong with the company making this move. However, the consultants are of course subject to limitations bound by their contracts to competitors that they had worked for previously. These conditions usually include confidentiality in which case it would be futile for the company to try to get info from another company by extracting it from consultancy firms that their competitors have previously used. __4__ Rewarding competitors` employees for useful `tips` So long as the ‘tips’ are legally acquired, there’s nothing wrong with it. __3__ Questioning competitors` customers and/or suppliers There’s nothing wrong with conducting information drives to customers. Customers usually have small grievances on a competitor which could prove useful for the company. Suppliers are another matter. Suppliers especially ones that have exclusive customers by region usually do not divulge information regarding their clients. __5__ Buying and analyzing competitors` garbage It’s the same as buying the competitor’s products. __1__ Advertising and interviewing for nonexistent jobs This blatantly fools not only the competitor but also the general public. It constitutes a violation __5__ Taking public tours of competitors` facilities Since it is a public tour, then it’s perfectly alright for the company to tour competitor facilities as guided by the rules in those facilities. Violating the rules (such as taking pictures when not allowed to do so) is another matter. __2__ Releasing false information about the company in order to confuse competitors. Although the company aims to confuse competition, what it’s actually doing is also confusing the public which is generally an unacceptable business practice. There are some exceptions such as when the company bait’s competition with information that does not affect any other public or private entity aside from the competitors. These exceptions could mean something like deliberately leaving fake files in front of a competitor. __2__ Questioning competitors` technical people at trade shows and conferences Like the consultancy firms, these individuals are probably under strict contract not to divulge any pertinent information. There is no problem in questioning them, but what they reveal might even be false information that could damage the company rather than help them with the competition. __5__ Hiring key people away from competitors This is piracy. As long as the company can make offers that its competitor’s employees can’t refuse, it’s a free country. __3___ Analyzing competitors` labor union contracts It completely depends on the nature of the contracts. If it is a matter of public document, then there’s nothing wrong with procuring and analyzing it. If not, then the competitor’s privacy should be respected __1___ Having employees date persons who work for competitors If this is obligatory which is what is implied by the statement, then it violates the private life of the company’s employees. It is also most likely beyond their employees’ job descriptions. If it is voluntary, then it seems to be a matter of personal morals, although I’d still say that it is cruel. __3__ Studying aerial photographs of competitors` facilities This strictly depends on whether or not the law allows the act. I see no moral contentions outside those of mere adherence to government mandate. Reference: Gordon, H. (2003). Business Ethics. Pinedale Press: New Jersey

Gay marriage should not be legalized Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Gay marriage should not be legalized - Essay Example The adoption rights of same sex couples are a hotly debated topic in many countries now. Many arguments in favour and against the adoption rights are prevailing now. Supporters of such adoption believe that it is injustice to deny the adoption rights to gay couples because of their natural inability to conceive. Many parentless street children may get protection and the society is allowing the gay couples to adopt children. But it is difficult for a gay couple to provide the motherly love to the adopted children. The love and care extended by two fathers cannot be equated against the love and care provided by a mother. In the absence of mother’s love, the adopted children may not develop properly and may become antisocial elements in future which are the core reason for the critics to argue against the adoption efforts of gay couples. The gay couple should realize that the society never forced them to engage in such an anti-natural relationship and hence they have no right to argue in favour of adoption. â€Å"Obviously, gay parents will raise gay children, since straight parents only raise straight children† (Why gay marriage should not be legalized). It is difficult for a society to survive with the help of gay community alone. Nature has enforced the marriage between different sexes in order to sustain human life on earth. Legalizing of gay marriage is against the laws of the nature which is not desirable. Straight marriages may become meaningless if we encourage the same sex marriages or gay marriages. No religion seems to be in favour of gay marriages. In other words, people can lead a free life at their own will as far their life do not cause any harm to the society. Legalizing of gay marriage will encourage people to think in terms leading a crazy life. Our society is built on the strength of the natural laws. Any attempt to dislodge the natural laws has been ended up in big failures so far and hence gay

International view of economics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

International view of economics - Essay Example The primary factor to conceptualize would be the fact that every country pursues business differently. Laws affect the ways in which business is conducted from region to region and country to country. Negotiations are never conducted exactly as they would be where you have pursued such actions in any city, in any state in whichever country from which you originate. Knowledge and understanding of how others conduct business is an incredible advantage toward the understanding of global managerial economic situations. For example, where the deal is always the single most important consideration to Americans, the details and the way those details are ironed out would be more important for Europeans and Asians. This is where cultures clash in the board room. Something many who are experienced in global economic management would state unequivocally. David C. Korten in his discussion with the National Council of Churches explains that "We presently live under two competing systems of global governance: The Bretton Woods institutions and the United Nations. The former is primarily aligned with the corporate interest and the latter is primarily aligned with the human and natural interest." (Korten, David. C.; Global Economics; June 2003.) The problem with these competing systems of global economic governance is that they never meet in the middle.

Research proposal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Research proposal - Essay Example Since obesity will be dealt as more of a social issue, thus the social definition of the concept will be defined, however to get a more concrete definition indicators of obesity for instance, the Body Mass Index (BMI) will also be explored. Also, the life style issues which owe much to obesity for instance the intake of junk food, less exercise etc will be discussed and the side effects of obesity in context to the social life as well as health hazard relevant to these social aspects will be discussed in detailed. Also, the entire discussion will be based on the context of the American Society in general to identify how the society contributes in enhancing the issue. My paper intends on pointing out the societal indicators after thorough study to explore how the society we live in contributes in inducing obesity in individuals which is why the issue is increasing day by day, thus people need to be aware of these factors to eliminate the effects and causes. The information revealed in this people will be of value to the general public and the mass audience as the endemic can affect any of the individuals as they are part of the society. Areas to be Investigated Some of the perspectives which will be explored in this paper include; 1. What comprises the concept of obesity? 2. ... 8. How can one deal with obesity to minimize its side effects? 9. What are some of the lifestyle changes that can lead towards a healthy lifestyle? 10. How can the cause and effect relationship between variables related to obesity be seen in the context of the society? Thus, my study will deal with the cause and effects of obesity in the context of the life styles of the individuals being examined and the societal factors contributing in the increase of the endemic. Methods of Research My study will be based on the archival sources present on obesity. For this reason, both online papers, journals, reports etc will be studied, and alongside, other documents like newspapers, books, hardcopies of thesis and journals etc will be analyzed to come up with unbiased and a generic conclusion regarding the study. For this reason, the nearby library sources will be utilized, and the online sources which can be accessed for this purpose. While I searched online for the various sources on obesity to continue my study, millions of results showed up, however, my research questions helped me narrow down my focus, based on which I have specified about 11 sources which will thoroughly be analyzed for this purpose. Moreover, the gaps of knowledge left by the archival research will be addressed by conducting first hand surveys from a sample which will be designed to find relevant data to make the study more credible and informative. References Heinberg, Leslie J, and J K. Thompson.  Obesity in Youth: Causes, Consequences, and Cures. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 2009. Print. Nakaya, Andrea C.  Obesity: Opposing Viewpoints. Detroit: Greenhaven Press, 2006. Print. Wolin, Kathleen Y, and Jennifer M. Petrelli.  Obesity. Santa Barbara, Calif:

Technical Instruction Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Technical Instruction - Assignment Example This essay revolves around task analysis for a 4th generation iPod Touch from Apple Inc. Hierarchical analysis entails decomposing a complex task into subtasks that are easy to understand. In case of operating an iPod, Hierarchical analysis provides detailed description of all steps starting from switching the device on to playing a tune and adjusting audio volume. On the contrary, cognitive analysis provides informative knowledge on optimizing functionality of a product. At this juncture, iPod task analysis can be broken down into subtasks as in the layout below. After acquiring a new iPod, charging is necessary to ensure battery durability. A green light code on the top right corner indicates the device’s battery status. Presence of 3 or more green light codes signifies a strong battery status while less than 2 codes indicates a low battery. Charge an iPod Touch through the following steps; Configuration of a device is necessary in order to enhance its security and enhance its functionality. Failure to configure an iPod Touch from Apple will restrict the device’s ability to accept and install certain applications from iTunes Store. Configuration of a new device is achieved through the following steps; Modification of contents falls into two broad categories; adding applications and removing applications. Apart from these two tasks, users can engage in other minor modifications like customizing background theme, hiding applications and customizing the lock screen

Battle of Gallipoli and its effects to World War I Research Paper

Battle of Gallipoli and its effects to World War I - Research Paper Example A breakdown of  the  Gallipoli  Peninsula that was carried out, identified five land systems, based on aspects  of  geology, geomorphology, hydrogeology and vegetation were identified in studying this battle and these have prompted many questions concerning the reasons why the allies were defeated. The landings  that were made in April 1915 were created at Cape Helles and Anzac Cove, and the objective of these landings was to seizure the upper ground held by the Ottoman Empire. The land system investigation that were conducted by historical scholars have come to show that these landing areas were deprived by landscape, with steep, intensely carved slopes, thin beaches and insufficient water deliveries. A afterwards landing at Suvla Bay in August 1915 consumed additional terrain benefits, with wide landing beaches and the water supply was readily available, but the strategic advantages  of  a lightly held terrain were not exploited (Doyle and Bennett, 1999). In general , the  Gallipoli  Campaign was a failure mainly because  of  insufficient preparation and leadership by the allied forces that were involved in it. In addition, the poor communications, the efficiency  of  the Turkish armies in the siting  of  defensive positions according to terrain and the lack  of  detailed information with regard to terrain and geology available to the allied troops involved in the war ensured their abysmal failure in this battle. Despite the fact that it was a tactical failure, the landing made by the allies on Gallipoli can be considered to be one of the most significant amphibious operations in the twentieth century. Enormous in extent that lasted for over ten months, this operation was ambitious in concept and was characterized by fierce fighting from the shoreline into the peninsula's steep, broken ridgelines. The  Gallipoli  invasion provided plenty of  experience on amphibious operations and it not only influenced how this type o f warfare was conducted during the First World War, but it also worked towards the shaping of  the amphibious warfare doctrine and practices in the world war that followed (Lee, 2002). The most powerful naval forces during the First World War, namely the United States, Imperial Japan, and Great Britain, all came to use the lessons  learned from this battle  to produce the primary concepts for their future amphibious maneuvers. This operation came to exhibit the magnitude of the strategic prospective  of  a naval-ground assaulting force. The idea for this operation was conceived by the British admiralty and it became one of the cornerstones for the Dardanelles campaign. It was an effort by the allies to capture Istanbul, in order to force Turkey out  of  the Triple Alliance, so that a route could be opened to send reinforcements to czarist Russia (Millett, 2000). After this battle, the failures that resulted from it came to be considered to be a black mark on the record s  of  both the future British prime minister, Winston Churchill, and the British armed organization. This resulted in accusations of  imperial mismanagement, incompetent leadership, and political maneuvering that have come to cloud the historiography on this subject since the end  of  the First World War. Because of the huge controversy surrounding this battle, a number  of  myths have come to be developed concerning it, and there were assertions that it

Corporate Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Corporate Culture - Essay Example If I were the leader of Zappos, I would cultivate a more participative culture that would incorporate all the stakeholders including the customers in the decision making process of the organization. This will result into stimulation of ideas which will enable all the stakeholders to always respond to shared problems with innovative suggestive and unusual efforts. This will also improve the level of morale and a sense of satisfaction amongst the employees. A strong culture that is widely recognized constitutes one factors which contribute greatly to the success of any company. The managerial approach of most organizations tend to be characterized as being highly structured with set vision, mission and various strategies which guide its operations (Weiss, 2011). What determines the attainment of all this, depends on the organizations culture. If the employees share similar goals and objectives of the organization, the organization will tend to realize its vision and mission while there is always successful implementation of their strategies while the contrary is true. All this depend on the ability of the management to make the employees have a good assessment of and embracing the organizations

Specific threats Essay Example for Free

Specific threats Essay 1. Air pollution This event could affect students and staff who are susceptible to respiratory problems. The following principles should be observed. a. A file of students and staff who have or are susceptible to respiratory problems. The file should contain data on the location of such persons at different times during the day. b. When notified from district via news media of a smog advisory, the principal shall inform all staff and notify those individuals in file to stay indoors and minimize physical activity. c. Cancel all athletic competitions and practices and any other activities which require strenuous physical activity such as marching band, etc. d. Cancel any events, which require the use of vehicles. 2. Bomb threats In the event that the university receives a bomb threat, by letter or telephone, the following procedures will be accomplished. a. If the bomb threat is in the form of a letter, note the manner in which it was delivered, who found it and where it was found. Take care while handling the message by immediately placing it in an envelope so that possible fingerprints may be detected. b. If the bomb threat is a telephone call, keep the caller on the line. Delay the caller with statements such as I am sorry, I did not understand you. What did you say? Note the time the call was received, manner of caller, background noises and what the caller is saying. Use the following guidelines that follow to assist you. Immediately notify the police and fire departments (or designee) (call 911). If the caller is still on the phone, call the phone company to trace the call. Instruct staff and students to turn off any pagers, cellular phones or two-way radios. Do not use these devices during this threat. Caution students against picking up or touching any strange objects or packages. If the suspected bomb is in a corridor, modify evacuation routes to bypass the corridor. Evacuate students using primary and alternate routes. Take emergency backpack and student kits. Check to be sure all students have left the building. Upon arrival at the designated safe site, take roll. Notify the designee and emergency response personnel of any missing students. Does not return to the building until emergency response officials determine it is safe. 3. Chemical accident Chemical accidents of a disaster magnitude could result from a transportation accident or an industrial accident. Should any such accidents endanger the students or staff, the following will be accomplished. An alert message will be broadcast over the â€Å"school weather Radio† and the safety siren may be heard. The following should be observed; Have all students report to nearest designated building. Close all doors and windows, shut off ventilation, and listen to the radio (shelter-in-place). Take roll. Notify designee of any missing students. If necessary, use tape, rags, clothing or any other available material of seal air leaks. Continue to shelter in the place unless advised to do otherwise. Monitor and radio station for further instructions. If you believe that gas is entering the building, protect everyone with a wet cloth or towel over the mouth and nose. Have everyone breathe in short, quick shallow breaths. If evacuation orders are received, proceed with evacuation plan. Evacuate students. A check should be performed to be sure all students have been evacuated. 4. Threat of explosion This incident could be the result of spilled cleaning chemicals within the school building, in the university lab, a material a student brings to university, or a broken gas main. Should any such accidents endanger the students or staff, take the following actions; Determine if evacuation is required. Notify appropriate local authorities of incident (call 911). If necessary, proceed with evacuation procedure using primary or alternate routes, avoiding exposure to the chemical fumes. Evacuate students from the building using primary and/or alternate fire routes (p.14). Check to be sure all students have left the building. Students are to remain quiet during evacuation. Upon arrival at evacuation site, take roll and report attendance to designee immediately. Notify emergency response personnel of any missing students. Do not return to the building until emergency response personnel have determined it is safe. 5. Fire This incident could occur if the school building is on fire; should any such event endanger the students or staff, the following will be accomplished. Notify the fire Department (call 911). Proceed to evacuate the school using the primary or alternate fire routes. An inspection will be performed to be sure all students and personnel have left the building. Evacuate students from the building using primary or alternate fire routes. Take emergency backpack and student kits. Maintain  Control of the students a safe distance from the fire and fire fighting equipment. Report any missing students to the designee and emergency response personnel. Do not return to the building until the Fire Department determines it is safe. 6. Earthquake If indoors: †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Stay inside, move away from windows, shelves, heavy objects or furniture which may fall over. Take cover under a table or desk. Instruct the students to DUCK-COVER-HOLD. †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In halls, stairways, or other areas where cover is not available, move to an interior wall. †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In library, immediately move away from windows and bookshelves. Take appropriate cover. †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In laboratories, all burners should be extinguished (if possible) before taking cover. Stay clear of hazardous chemicals, which may spill. †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In the multi-use room, take cover under the tables or move close to the interior walls away from windows. If outdoors: †¢Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Move to an open space, away from buildings and overhead power lines. Lie down or crouch low to the ground (legs will not be steady). Keep looking around to be aware of dangers, which may demand movement. 7. Tornado Severe weather can be accompanied by high winds. If this type of weather poses any risk to the staff or students the following shall be accomplished. An alert message will be broadcast over the weather radio (WTTS, 92.3 FM is the local Emergency Alert System station for Bartholomew, Brown, Decatur, Jackson, Lawrence and Monroe Counties.)Staff and students should take cover in the shielded areas within the building. Stay away from windows. Close all blinds and curtains. Avoid auditoriums, gymnasiums and other structures with large roof spans. Monitor weather radio and AM radio station. Notify utility companies of any break or suspected break in utility lines. 8. Threatening individual This incident could occur if a belligerent person or armed person appeared at the school site. Should such an individual threaten the safety of students or staff, the following shall be accomplished.

The Future of Japans Economy

The Future of Japans Economy Where will Japan be in 20 years? SUMMARY Long-term economic forecasting is still as difficult as ever. Typical previous long-term forecasts have proved to be on average out by as much as 33%. In the present day unsettled political and economic climate forecasting economic future of a country has become even more difficult. Japan‘s economy declined during 1998-2003 period, making the economic pundits wonder if Japan would be able to revive its economy. Significant growth during the last two years shows that Japan’s economy cannot be written off that easily. Japan has many economic factors supporting the likely hood of Japan’s continued economic growth over the next 20 years. On the other hand emergence of China as the third largest economic power, its increasing share in world economy, Japan’s declining working population, huge domestic debt, rising energy prices and unstable world politics could jeopardize the economic growth. Japan need to modify its tax structure and reduce the burden of debts. Recent elections over the decision on privatization of the postal system shows that Japan is prepared to make tough decisions to keep its economy on track. It appears that Japan is already preparing to be a part of the success of the newly emerging economic superpowers. The inter-dependence of the economies will ensure that Japan will continue to make economic progress. An economic development rate of 1.8% over the next 20 years appears to be certainly achievable for Japan. INTRODUCTION The post war years allowed Japan to concentrate on economic development. With nearly no defense expenditure, Japan was able to devote nearly one third of its GNP to investments during 1953-63 [Angus Madison, 2005]. The government policies of investment in education, industry and research and development started bearing fruit and the average annual growth rate during 1960s remained around 11% per annum. The government policies favored encouraging savings, promoting investments, supporting newly emerging industry and promoting exports. Between 1965 and 1970 average growth rate was 11.1% (Financial statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance, 2005) GDP Growth in real terms** GDP Growth % 1960 8.8 1965 9.2 1970 11.1 1975 4.5 1980 2.8 The steady growth rate of almost 10% per annum helped Japan overtake Federal Republic of Germany in terms of GNP by 1968 to become 2nd only to United States of America. The 1973 oil crisis came as an economic shock to Japan. The second oil price increase of 1979 meant that the oil prices which were around $12.75 a barrel in 1974 increased nearly by 300% to $34 a barrel in 1981 [Nakamura, 2005]. Japan, being almost totally dependent on imported oil reacted quickly by adopting a policy of monetary constraints and improved its energy efficiency to stay competitive and the decline in exports in 1980-2 were recovered by 1984 proving that Japan has the ability to bounce back. The two decades following the Japan’s meteoric rise were the years of globalization. 1980-2000 were the years when the economic development suffered a slow down all over the world. [Weisbrot et al, 2001] call it the period of diminished progress. The 2nd oil price increase of 1979, globalization and flow of capital to third world countries and economic mismanagement have all been blamed for the decline [Weisbrot et al, 2001]. The IMF figures of real per capita GDP (in constant 2000 US$) shows that when compared to 1960-80, almost in all cases per capita GDP declined during the two decades 0f 1980-2000. For the top GDP bracket (which includes Japan), the annual rate of GDP growth fell by 1%. Reference: [Weisbrot et al, 2001] In this global period of economic decline, Japan’s economic also went through a period of recession. When everyone was expanding Japan to continue the economic miracle, Japan’s economy had to face a number of financial crises, some of which in the hindsight appear to be of their own making. [Agarwal, 2004] believes that the liberalization of financial system, the deregulation of banking sector, interests and capital flows were carried out without proper assessment of their impact on the domestic financial markets. Many financial institutions came to the verge of bankruptcy and most of these had to be bailed out to prevent an economic crisis. Some analysts [in Agarwal Agarwal, 2001] believe that unlike United States which stepped into to save the economy from ‘Savings and Loan’, Japan’s Ministry of Finance failure to intervene and making the financial institutions sell their assets to account for hundreds of billion dollars worth of non performing loans is responsible for the economic crisis of Japan during the 1990s. In addition to the financial problems and banking sector near insolvency, the economic experts identified Weak economic activity, low productivity and high prices as some of the reasons for stagnation of economy. Japan’s dwindling working age population means that there will be fewer workers available for economic activity. The domestic financial policies, a reduction in exports due to a global economic down trend resulted in an average growth rate of 1.7% during 1990s [CIA Economic Report, 2005]. In the aftermath of September 11 crisis, the slowing down of US, European and Asian economies has not helped the export based Japanese economy and during 2000-3 Japan’s economy stagnated during this period. During the first half of 2004 Japan’s economy began to show the sign of recovery. It was the first time that the economic figure gave reason for optimism for Japan’s economy during almost a decade; Japan declared a growth rate of 5.25% (seasonally adjusted annual figure). This figure was largely due to the new economic factors now emerging in the world economy, the fast growing Chinese economy. Slower growth in domestic machinery demand and reduction in orders from China resulted in an overall growth rate of 2.25%. Suddenly the economic pundits have become extremely optimistic about Japan’s economic growth in the forthcoming years. The earlier estimates of 3.4% growth for 2005 have now been upgraded by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.5% [IMF Predicts, 2005]. Economics believe that due to pressures of being a democracy, Japan chose not to make hard choices; the banks were forced to hide the non recoverable loans and were obliged to throw good money after bad to appear to be solvent. The government borrowed heavily from the public and now the debt stands at 160% of GDP [CIA Economic Report, 2005]. Japan opted to ignore the option of writing off bad debts and using inflation to overcome the problem and used monetary tactics of accumulation of capital, which to most economist has cost them a longer than expected period of economic decline. The position now is that the banks are in a strong financial position and are generally solvent. The economic recovery from now on can be expected to be on a sound footing [Jerram, 2004]. ECONOMIC FORECASTING The science (or Art) of forecasting the economic future of a country especially a long term forecast is still an uncertain art. The parameters required for the input can and do change over the forecast period. [Artis, 1996] analyzed the economic forecasts error in pre-1983 and post-1983 period to show that the forecasting has not significantly improved during the two periods. While the economic parameters for most of the developing countries are not available in the required detail, for the developed countries it is normally not a major problem, yet the accuracy of the forecast varies by about 1% which is almost 30% out when we recognize that actual growth rate is around 2.75% [The difficult Art of Forecasting, 1996]. It has to be appreciated that some of the factors involved in economic growth are so unpredictable that they cannot be possibly included in economic forecasting, factors such as oil price shocks, unification of two Germany, September 11 terrorist attack, natural disaste rs like floods in New Orleans and Kashmir earthquakes cannot be factored into economic forecasts. The error of 1% in predicting economic trends is an average, in many cases IMF and OECD have been quite accurate in their predictions and the economic forecasting continues to have the confidence of economic planners to use it as a basis of international business as well as for providing planning information to the national economies. METHODOLOGIES OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING [Clements and Henry, 2002] and [Mizon, 2002] present excellent reviews of economic forecasting techniques. [Clements and Henry, 2002] give a detailed explanation of statistical modeling and techniques for generating forecasts. Reasons for errors in macroeconomic forecasts are also covered as also are methods of evaluating forecasts generated by different methods. The reasons for forecast failure are explained in a non-technical language by [Hendry Ericsson, 2001]. [Arsham, 2005] is an excellent reference manual available online for economic forecast modeling. The Forecasting method covered by [Arsham, 2005] include Economic Indicators, Economic Projections, Compound Growth Rate, Time Series Projection, Time Series using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Method, Visual Time Series Projections, Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques and Forecasting with Econometric Models. JAPAN ECONOMY IN 20 YEARS Japan’s economy has overcome the difficulties of the last decade. The growth rate from 2004 is expected to be a healthy 3%. In 2004 Japan achieved a growth rate of 2.25%. The IMF forecast for 2005 and 2006 is an economic growth rate of 4.5%. The worse appears to be over but for future economic growth, Japan has to ensure that its national debt is reduced, the impact of demographic factors is minimized and its exports and overseas production interest are maintained. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS One of the major factors being identified as potential hazard to future economic development of Japan is its aging population. Japan has an excellent health care system. The life expectancy in Japan is among one of the highest in the developing countries. According to the population statistics 20% of Japan’s population is now 65 years or over. The problem is that the Japan’s population is not being replenished by the new births at the required rate. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.3 children per woman which is well below the replacement level. The concern that Japan’s economy weakened by the recession of more than a decade may be overburdened by the problems of manpower shortage, paying old age benefits to the high percentage of senior citizens. The labor force is likely to shrink by 0.7% [Campbell, 2003] a year between 2000 and 2025 and may well seriously effect the economic development during the next 20 years. The problem is that the life style Japanese have got accustomed to does not encourage child bearing to have the hope of making up the present shortfall in foreseeable future. A survey of Japanese women showed that only 7% of Japanese women saw child bearing is a satisfying experience compared to 60-70% women in other countries [Campbell, 2003]. This means that Japan’s population is likely to continue its trend of declining working age group and an increasing population of 65 years and over. The fiscal implication of the aging population would require a change in the pension system. The present system of pay-as-you-go would mean that â€Å"pure aging effect on public finances for 2000 to 2030 could be debt equal to 190% of 2000 GDP [ ] The United Nation Population Development calculations estimate that if the present situation does not improve, by 2025 Japan will have an average age of 50 years. The population of 65 years and over will be 30% of the total population. The NUPD paints a bleak picture where due to decline in birth rate the proportion of children under 15 will be the same as those of people 80 years and over. This is stark statistics indeed and there is no doubt that Japan will have to take steps to encourage population growth rate to around 3% per annum. However, most social scientists believe that this doom day forecast can be avoided. In the near term Campbell [ ] argues that the gradual decline rate of 0.7% is manageable and the economy can cope with this without undue strain. Campbell [ ] contends that older people will not be a burden on state, the pension premium for the working population may have to be increased to support the pension schemes but it is unlikely to impede the economy. He points out that United States spend 13% of GDP on health care while Japan spent 7.8% for providing a better degree of health care to its population. Usui [ ] believes that women are still not participating in the economy to the extent they could and in case of labor shortage they would play a more active role in the labor market to remove the labor shortage. She also points out to the useful role senior citizens play in upbringing of their grand children releasing parents for a more active economic role. The population growth rates can thus be achieved without removing women from the workforce for an extended period. The demographic dilemma is certainly a cause for concern for Japan’s economy but it appears that Japan will be able to cope with the shortage during the next 20 years. Japan has not been very receptive to the ‘guest workers’ for meeting its manpower requirements but a future shortage may change that situation. Increased productivity, late retirement, more participant of women in work force and possibility of using foreign workers are some of the options that can be used to meet the manpower requirement of the economy. Japan has the highest number of robots in use in the world [CIA Report on Japan Economy, 2005, the automation is another solution to the manpower shortage. However, the real solution in the long term is to encourage population growth through incentives and child support. Negative population growth is a problem in many developed countries and solutions are being found to prevent it from holding the economic development. CHINA AS AN ENGINE FOR JAPAN’S ECONOMY Japan’s economic miracle was greatly helped by the exports to United States. As Japan’s economy developed it was able to find additional partners in Middle East, Europe and in developing countries. The global economic decline during 1980-2000 reduced the pace of economic development in Japan. China’s ‘economic miracle’ during the last few years has been largely responsible for the revival of Japan’s economy. India is also posting impressive economic growth rate during the last few years. Japan’s technological advantage, its competitiveness and its participation in ASEAN places Japan in an advantageous position in helping develop these economies [News Item, 2004]. The recent revival of Japan’s economy has in part been attributed to its exports to China. At present the main exports to China are of high-tech parts. Many of the Japan’s giant corporations are building new facilities in Japan to make products for China and other markets. China has made tremendous progress since a change in its political system. Its foreign trade has grown by double digits for many years. China is now the third largest trading country in the world and its exports to United States were around $150 billion last year putting China ahead of Japan in the list of countries exporting to USA [Herman, 2005]. Many observers believe that this might be a threat to Japan’s economy. But China and Japan, at least for now see this as a window of opportunity for developing their economies. China needs Japan’s technology and Japan recognizes China as an opportunity to reduce its production costs by using cheap labor available in China. China will perhaps welcome Japan’s investment even more than investment from US as Japanese investment does not come with a dose of speeches urging China to reform its political system! China is encouraging direct investment from developed countries and Japan has already built plants in Japan to lower its labor costs and stay competitive in the international markets. Japan-China cooperation in the economic filed appears to be in the interest of both countries. China has an advantage in labor costs and for the foreseeable future China will need the advance Japanese technology to meet its development goals. China is now the second largest market for Japan’s export and it appears that for the next decade or two China- Japan trade will continue to grow for their mutual benefit. China’s GDP of $1.7 trillion is only 13% of that of United States and about one third of that of Japan [Wang, 2005]. China has a population of more than a billion and it is clear that the scope of development in China is enormous. After China agreed to the one-country two-system policy and Hong Kong came under its political control, countries like Singapore, Korea and Japan built considerable production facilities to China to benefit from the cheap labor costs. Hong Kong, of course being a political part of China moved many of its labor intensive industries to China. This has benefited China in boosting its exports. It has been estimated that 60% of Chinese export in 2004 came from the foreign invested enterprises. The profits of Japanese enterprises in China, of course benefit Japan too. It is clear that both China and Japan are using trade to each other’s advantage. What is not well known is that China is not only the fastest growing market for Japan but also for the United States. The Kyoto protocol agreed to keep India and China out of the developed countries list and as such they are not expected to limit green house gases. Although United States has also not agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, it appears that Chinese economy can continue to develop, at least for the time being without the worries for limiting green house gases. Absence of application of Kyoto Protocol would also be advantageous for Japanese companies working in China. JAPAN’S DEBT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT The total debt of Japan is nearly 160% of its GDP [CIA Economic Report on Japan, 2005]. Most of Japanese debt is however internal. Us Foreign debt is already approaching the internal debt of Japan and it has been estimated that by 2010 US will owe as much to the international lenders as Japan owes to its internal lenders, Japanese people. Although the difference in economic sizes of the two countries is enormous and it is not correct to compare Japan and US on the same economic scale but it does give us an idea that the debt that Japan built during the recession years may not hold it from future development. The demography, the huge debt problem and rise of competitive China are some of the factors Japan will have to contend to make economic progress. As the editorial in Rediscovering Japan Dec 2003 said that with the revival of Japan’s economy economic pundits are once again discovering that Japan has the competitive strength to bounce back. The editorial said that that Japan is still the world second largest economy and it has streamlined itself to meet the emerging challenges from Korea and Japan. It urges US CEOs to be not influenced by media misperception and to take Japan seriously. Japan is far too important to be ignored, it said. THE ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR NEXT 20 YEARS The Editorial from Rediscovering Japan is perhaps the best note to conclude this article. Japan has the potential to develop and compete with the new emerging economies; it had the ability to become energy efficient to stay competitive after the energy crisis of 1973 and 1979 and the new energy prices will probably be more of a headache for gas guzzling economies of the west. Japan has invested in its people and while other countries might build plants to manufacture Japanese cars for the present, Japan has the foresight to invest in the research and development for energy efficient vehicles possibly electric to stay ahead of the competition. [Suzuki, 2004] presented medium term economic forecast for Japan (2004-2010), estimating the economic development rate to remain in the range of 2% per annum. Their forecast is however based on an oil price estimate of $28 per barrel, which we now know is more than twice that. Their assumption regarding improvement in export was also rather conservative. The economic forecasting is poor in estimating up and down turns. Suzuki analysis had projected 2% growth rate for 2004 and 2005, which was actually 2.25% for 2004 and 4.5% estimated for 2005. [Kosai and Ito, 1999] estimate that the economy growth rate for the period 2000-2025 will be 1.8% and as the economic forecast for such a long period of a habit of being out by an average 1% we can safely expect Japan to develop during the next 20 years. Japanese have proved themselves capable of meeting economic challenges presented to them. No one would have believed that Japan had the capability of bouncing back from the ravages of the 2nd World War and develop to an extent where it is seen as a threat to the other economies. One thing is certain Japan is too important to be ignored and is likely to remain so for the next 20 years and beyond. WORK CITED Agarwal, J. D., Globalization and International Capital Flows, Keynote Address at the National Conference on Globalization Decadal Indian Experience, Kannur University, Kerela, India, 17th January 2004 Agarwal, J.D. and Agarwal, A. (2001), Liberalization of Capital Flows, Banking System Trade: Focus on Crisis Situations, International Review of Comparative Public Policy Volume 13, pp. 151-212. Angus Madison, Economic Growth in Japan and the USSR, 2005, http://www.mail-archive.com/[emailprotected]/msg06027.html Arsham, H., Time-Critical Decision Making for Business Administration, http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/stat-data/Forecast.htm Artis, M. J., How Accurate Are the IMFs Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook, IMF Working Paper 96/89 (August 1996) Campbell, J. C., Population Aging: Hardly Japan’s Biggest Problem, Asia Program Special Report No 107, January 2003, Woodrow Wilson Asia Center for Scholars. CIA Report on Japan Economy, retrieved from Internet on 16 November 2005, http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html#Econ Clements, M.P. and Hendry, D.F., (eds.) Companion to Economic Forecasting, Basil Blackwell, 2002 Eberstadt, N., Power and Population in Asia, retrieved from Internet on 16 Nov 2005, http://www.policyreview.org/feb04/eberstadt.html Financial Statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance, 2005, http://www.mail-archive.com/[emailprotected]/msg06027.html Hendry, D.F. and N.R. Ericsson (eds.) Understanding Economic Forecasts, MIT Press, 2001. Herman, S., Chinas Economic Might Makes Japan Nervous, retrieved from Internet on 16 Nov 2005, http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2005-01/2005-01-17-voa7.cfm?CFID=8078384CFTOKEN=86056847 IMF Predicts Rosy Economic Growth for Japan, retrieved from Internet on 16 November 2005, http://www.bizasia.com/economy_/becd7/imf_predicts_rosy_economic.htm Jerram, R., This Time it’s Different: Japan Poised for Growth, The International Economy, Spring 2004 Kosai, Y., and Ito, Y., A New Start for Japan’s Economy: The Path Towards Balanced Growth to the Year 2025, Jan 1999, http://www.jcer.or.jp/eng/eco/98long.html Mizon, G.E., (2002) `Review of Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric Modeling with Observational Data by Aris Spanos, Economic Journal, 112, F164F166 Nakamura, T., The Postwar Japanese Economy, http://www.mail-archive.com/[emailprotected]/msg06027.html News Item, Chinese scholar suggests axis with India, Japan, May 19, 2004, retrieved from Internet on 16 Nov 2005, http://www.rediff.com/news/2004/may/19axis.htm Suzuki, H., Japan’s Economy through 2010, Daiwa Institute of Research Limited, March 2004 The Difficult Art of Forecasting, World Economic Review, International Monetary Fund, 1996 Usui, C., Japan Aging Dilemma? Asia Program Special Report No 107, January 2003, Woodrow Wilson Asia Center for Scholars. Wang, R., China’s Economic Growth: Source of Disorder? Foreign Service Journal, May 2005 Weisbrot, M., Baker, D., Krav, E.and Chen, J., The Scorecard on Globalization 1980-2000, Twenty Years of Diminished Progress, Center for Economic and Policy Research, July 2001

Food Supplies: Purchasing, Receipts and Storage

Food Supplies: Purchasing, Receipts and Storage The purchase, receipt and storage of food Choosing a supplier It is essential to purchase food from approved suppliers who have demonstrated a commitment to high standards of food hygiene Controls to minimize hazards from supplies/suppliers Select the least hazardous materials/ingredients e.g. pasteurized egg and ready-prepared vegetables. Specify the standard and quality of product required including the delivery temperature. Branded products usually preferable. Delivery and unloading of food The main hazards associated with deliveries are contaminated food and the multiplication of bacteria as a result of prolonged delays after unloading and before refrigeration. Unsatisfactory delivery vehicles or drivers or drivers may indicate unsatisfactory deliveries. High-risk food should be delivered below 5?, frozen food at-18?. Controls All food should be inspected before placing in storage. Deliveries should be checked for freshness, temperature, colour, odour, contamination, infestations and satisfactory packaging and labeling. Contaminated food from unapproved sources, perishable food above 8?, frozen food above -15?, food with evidence of pest activity and food which is not covered or in damaged packaging or which is out of date is suspect and may need to be rejected. The supervisor and the supplier should usually be notified. As far as practicable, external packaging should not be brought into food preparation areas. A separate deboxing area is recommended. Unloading should be completed as quickly as possible. Staff should be trained to deal with deliveries effectively and to prevent contamination occurring. Records of deliveries should be retained to enable traceability in the event or food poisoning or a food complaint. Safe food storage Correct storage is fundamental to the hygienic operation of any food business. Failure to ensure satisfactory in the event of food poisoning or a food complaint. Safe food storage Correct storage is fundamental to the hygienic operation of any food business. Failure to enable satisfactory storage conditions will result in hazards (contamination and multiplication of bacteria), mould, spoilt food, discoloration, staleness and pest infestation. Dry food stores Rooms used for storage of cereals, dried and canned foods should be suitable for this purpose, vermin-proof and kept clean and tidy. Hazards encountered include soiled delivery trays, pest infestations, damaged and leaking cartons, out-of-date stock, soil from root vegetables and chemical contamination. Controls Keep stores dry, cool, well lit and well ventilated. Effective pest control measures, storage of food at least 15cm above the floor and stock rotation systems are essential. Care with deboxing/opening sacks will avoid foreign body contamination. Food should be stored away from the walls and pipes affected by condensation and on suitable shelves such as tubular stainless steel racks, or in mobile rodent-proof bins. Spillages should be cleared away promptly. If possible, fruit and vegetables should be stored separately from other food. Fruit should be examined regularly as mould spreads rapidly. Vegetables heavily contaminated with soil should be stored below, for example, fruit or lettuce on the vegetable rack. Potatoes should be stored in the dark to prevent sprouting or turning green. A separate store should be used for storing cleaning chemicals. Blown, badly dented, seam-damaged, holed or rusty cans should be rejected. Staff should be trained to store food correctly, to remove spi llages, how to rotate stock and to recognize signs of pests and unfit food. Chilled storage High-risk and perishable foods should be stored under refrigeration to prevent most pathogenic bacteria bacteria from multiplying and to slow down the rate of spoilage. Refrigerators and freezers should be sited in well-ventilated areas away from heat sources, such as oven and the rays of the sun. Operating temperatures and monitoring Refrigerators usually operate between 1? to 4?. The display temperature should be checked every time the fridge is used. It should be recorded at least twice a day. The actual food temperature should be recorded at least weekly and whenever the display temperature is unsatisfactory. temporary rises in display temperatures will occur if doors are left open or a large quantity of food at room temperature are loaded into the fridge, for example, bottles of soft drinks or lemonade. Temperatures should return to normal very quickly and food temperatures must not rise above 8?. Contamination and covering of food Raw food must always be kept apart from high-risk food to prevent contamination of high-risk food with food poisoning bacteria. Separate refrigerators are preferred, although, if in the same unit, the raw food must always be placed at the bottom to avoid contamination. Food should be covered to prevent drying out, cross-contamination and absorption of odour. Care should be take to protect foods such as lettuce, tomatoes and cucumbers from dripping blood. Packing and stock rotation refrigerators must not be overloaded, and food should never be left between products for air circulation. Only perishable foods should be stored in the refrigerator. This includes vacuum packs and pasteurized cans of meat. Stock rotation is essential to avoid spoilage. New stock should be placed behind existing stock to facilitate stock rotation. Open cans of food Opened and part-used cans of food, especially acid food such as fruit, fruit juice or tomatoes, must not be left in the can as this may result in chemical contamination. The unused contents should be emptied into a suitable container, such as a plastic bowl, covered and placed in the refrigerator. Defrosting and cleaning Defrosting and cleaning should be carried out in accordance with the manufacturers instructions. Most units defrost automatically and should be cleaned and disinfected at least weekly. Bicarbonate of soda (one tablespoon to 4.5 litres of water) may be used, but perfumed cleaning agents must not. Food should be placed in another refrigerator whilst the cleaning is being carried out. Staff training All food handlers must receive instruction on the correct use of the refrigerator especially in relation to contamination and temperature control. They should be told not to keep the door open for longer than necessary. Corrective action If the fridge temperature remains too high this may be a result of overloading, e.g. completely blocking a shelf or because the thermostat is too high. Inform your supervisor immediately. If the problem cant be solved, an engineer should be brought in. Food should be placed in an alternative fridge, unless it has been above 8? for more than 4hours, when it should be destroyed. Freezers and frozen food Commercial freezers should operate at -18? or slightly below. At this temperature food will keep for a reasonable time with no bacterial growth. However, spores and dormant

Masterbation - Men vs Women :: Sociology Essays Research Papers

Masterbation - Men vs Women 55 vs 38 percent of men vs women (aged 18-59) said they masturbated on a regular basis. The percentage above is basically an indicative quantitative value for what society believes is the norm for both men and women. Two stereotypes come into play, that of a man being an overly sexual being, constantly craving sex and consuming every waking moment and every ounce of energy in pursuit of it. Secondly, there is the stereotype of woman being a passive, sexually unresponsive being. Many combinations of factors come together to produce the common misconceptions shown in the above statistics. The lower percentage of women in this statistic is most likely indicative of a social pressure. Women who don’t express their sexuality and who don’t give in to many of their sexual needs are deemed as â€Å"good† in our society. Many people consider women who masturbate as â€Å"loose† and intimidating, a role not considered to be lady like. In addition there are many cultural factors associated with the lowered percentage. A woman learns from an early age that her genitals are inferior to that of a man. We all can recall the â€Å"mine fell off† story; this implies that a woman is lacking something that a man has. In many cultures both outside and inside the U.S., women are taught to repress their sexual urges, and that sex for them is merely a means to procreate and keep their husbands happy. Furthermore, a partner who masturbates, because it implies they are lacking in their performance, intimidates many men. As the social ideal of a woman being a dependent and passive creature has deteriorated in our time, the taboo of female masturbation is beginning to show signs of decrease. However, for the most part the taboo still exists. For men masturbation is seen as a necessity, a means of controlling intense hormonal imbalances, a release valve. There is no study indicating that females don’t have the same desires and need to explore themselves. In fact masturbation is a healthy and natural thing for both males and females.

Plastic Not Paper -- essays research papers

Plastic Not Paper Walking through the grocery store I always try to look for the best buy. I always buy what's on sale, I guess you could say I'm cheep. Then I get to the check out lane, preferably the one with fewer people. I empty my wallet and pay. Then I wait. I think it's going to happen but I am not sure. Then it does, the baggier says, "Would you like paper or plastic?" I look that person right in the eye and I tell him, "I want the one that's better for the environment, I want the one that will help prevent pollution, I want the one that cost less, I want plastic." Plastic bags save money, they conserve energy, they are practical and they are better for the environment. That's why plastic bags are the best choice at the check out line. Of course your wondering how plastic bags save money, well just think 2,000 paper bags stacked on each other reaches a height of about 7.25 inches, while paper reaches a soaring height of 7.5 feet. This means it takes seven trucks to deliver the same amount of paper as one plastic delivering truck. Talk about a big waste of gas. Plastic bags cost about  ¼ of a cent to make, while paper cost close to 3 cents. This is money we save as well as the store owner. This is a lot of money that is going to waste considering that plastic bags are so much more practical then paper. You can use them for lots of other things. You can take on trips to the grocery store, your can protect dry clothing ...

Analysis of as new park case study Essay

Analysis of as new park case study Introduction                   The planning process involves developers, communities, engineers, planners, and government. The involvement of all the stakeholders in planning process ensures that a project is positively implemented in the public interests (Carmona, 2010). The new project would commence as an improvement the old city. The old city was widely used by women and children. Although it was developed 30 years ago, it still remained as the best choice for the people living at its vicinity. It formed the best recreation centre for people during warm winter season. The new park would replace the old trees, grass, and build new shades and buildings that would be used to shade people during hot weather. The case involved closed down of the old city for 2 years and relocation of people living around the city to place where there were no social amenities such as schools and recreation centre. The case represents of unethical issues that pertains to urban planning evident through th e developers.                   The ethical issues include closure of the city and denying people their recreational facility. The new park development would deny people a chance to enjoy their recreational facilities, which is professionally unethical to a developer. In addition, the developer would be destroying people’s heritage on old trees and grass. The modern buildings would destroy the old trees and grass heritage in the new park. Moreover, it is not ethical to transfer people from their own comfort zone where they enjoyed social amenities such as schools, parks and other infrastructures such other shopping malls to a place where they no longer enjoy the amenities. The act is believed to on self- interests that do not care about other community. In planning process, it is important for planners and developers to consider professional ethics while executing their city planning so that respect between communities and the affected people is maintained (Allen, 2009).                   In this case, the most probable solution would be first to develop the area where the two communities would be relocated before relocating them. It would be most appropriate if the government could start by developing infrastructures such as roads, schools, hospitals, and recreational centres before displacing people in towns if the new park would not be avoidable. On the other hand, a new park could be developed elsewhere and the old one be renovated to maintain national heritage. Moreover, the old park renovation should not be closed for a long period and should developers should allow people to access the park even under constructions. The renovation of the park would ensure that the national heritage on traditional trees and grass would not be destroyed thus maintain it as way of protecting the countries indigenous species. This would ensure that people are not relocated from their original comfort zone. Consequently, development of area that the two communities were transferred would ensure that the communities’ living standards would not be affected except their geographical shift. The move would maintain the respect between the communities, planners, developers and engineers as their lives will not be affected.                   The solution approach where the planners would ensure that all the social amenities are developed before relocation would ensure that the professional code of ethics on the conscious on the right of a third party would be upheld (American Planning Association, 2009). In addition, the code of ethics on fairly dealing with all the people involved in the process will be highly upheld. However, the value of professional code of ethics on heritage will be violated through electing a new park and indigenous trees will be destroyed. The planners will have made sure that the decision making process involves all the party and thus no one would be negatively affected by the new project. Similarly, the second approach of electing the new park elsewhere would ensure professional code of ethics for planners to ensure social justice and responsibility not to disadvantage people would be upheld. This solution would ensure that people are not relocated and at the same t ime the national heritage is maintained. The value of heritage that is attributed to indigenous trees will be upheld while that of excellence design and updated design will be violated (American Planning Association, 2009).                   Both solutions would minimize the negative impacts of the planning in the city. However, the best solution will be to design and construct the new park elsewhere near the old park. The solutions to planning dispute safeguard the rights of the people and the professional ethics of the planners (Staatskoerant, 2011).The old park can only be renovated so that the heritage of the city will be upheld. Similarly, there would be relocation of people to new areas and thus they will be fairly treated and their lives will not be affected. In addition, the solution will ensure that people are not denied their rights to enjoy themselves during winter. Renovation for the old park could be done during summer when people are not using the park so that they would not be limited access during winter. The move will impact positively to people living there and would retain the respect of communities to developers.                   The solution would limit the planners, developers and engineers from implementing their own design and planning of the city. In addition, the people would not have a chance to enjoy a modern facility. However, there would still be a chance for them to construct a new park elsewhere in the city and increase the number of parks. One that would be rich in heritage and there other one would be modern. Although space and area allocation may be a problem, a new park elsewhere would stand out for this case. Conclusion                   In conclusion, it can be noted that planners, developers and engineers should highly consider professional ethics when carrying out new projects that would impact negatively to the public. All planning processes should involve all stakeholders and fair implementation of the project should be considered to avoid unethical issues that are evidenced in the case of new park development. References Allen, J. (2009).  Event planning: Ethics and etiquette : a principled approach to the business of special event management. Mississauga, Ont: Wiley. American Planning Association,. (2009). AICP Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct. Planning.org. Retrieved 13 May 2014, from http://www.planning.org/ethics/ethicscode.htm Carmona, M. (2010). Public places, urban spaces: the dimension of urban design. Oxon: Routledge. Staatskoerant,. (2011). Code of ethics and professional conduct for the urban and regional planning profession. Gov.za. Retrieved 13 May 2014, from http://www.gov.za/documents/download.php?f=147400 Source document

An Analysis of Relationships in “The Kite Runner” Essay

â€Å"In the Kite Runner, relationships between fathers and sons are never joyful†. What do you think of this view? After having read the statement, my initial thoughts were that of course, at some point in the novel, relationships between fathers and sons were happy and full of joy, though after more consideration, I have decided that I agree with the statement, as, even in jubilant moments, the foundations of the relationships are built on lies and deceit, darkening the meaning of the temporarily- found happiness. An example of this would be the relationship between Ali and Hassan who seemingly had a very strong relationship, in which Ali was proud of the person his son was slowly becoming and cherished him dearly, as if his presence simply made the world a better place- â€Å"he had found his joy, his antidote, the moment Sanaubar had given birth to Hassan†. This suggests that, despite the fact we later learn that Ali isn’t Hassan’s paternal father, he has loved him as if he were his own from the very moment he was born, raising him as his own. The extent of Ali’s love is masked, however, by the fact that he lied to his ‘son’ his entire life, something some would claim to be selfish as he wanted to retain an ounce of self-respect, to have something he could call his own and, finally, to actually have a child, as he wouldn’t be able to have one any other way, due to his being sterile. On the other hand, some may say that of course, some of the happier relationships in the novel are purely and simply that: joyous relationships with no ulterior motive or reasoning. For example, the relationship between Hassan and Sohrab, in which it is completely obvious that Hassan would have done anything for his son, whilst being totally honest with him so as not to keep anything from him which may have tainted their lives together in anyway, other than his experience in the alley; omitted in order to allow hi son to maintain his innocence a while longer, in a world where it would surely be taken from him too early anyway. Hassan yearned for his son to be given the best opportunities in life, so as not to be a servant his whole life- â€Å"taught him to read and write- his son was not going to grow up illiterate like he had.†

Augustine on creation and Aquinas on the existence of God Essay

In Augustine’s writing, The Confessions, he philosophically attempts to answer the problems that arise within religion, specifically in regards to Judeo Christian beliefs, pertaining to God, time, and creation. Augustine first addresses the belief that God created everything. He tries to provide a coherent explanation for his claim that God’s ex-nihilo (â€Å"out of nothing†) creation of the Earth is a sound statement, given that God created everything, and with it time. Thus, the notion of time never existed before its very point of creation. However, given that God created everything, and thus the universe, what was God doing before the universe’s creation that caused him to decide to create it or that it was now necessary as opposed to before. Furthermore, if God even had to make the decision whether or not the universe’s existence was necessary, making him arbitrary, wouldn’t that inherently falsify the claim that God is a perfect being (omnipotent, omniscient, and omnipresent) and thus is immutable. Augustine objects this claim by stating that God is eternal, in that he is timeless, and so exists outside the realm of time. He is therefore not bound (or defined) by any temporal concept. So, when faced with the problem of what God was doing before he created the universe, Augustine simply claims it is an illogical question. He justifies that if one accepts the belief that God is eternal and created everything, than one can’t logically ask what God was doing at a certain point before the creation of time itself, as it was not yet in existence. Augustine continues the debate on time, by calling its very existence into question. Augustine questions the commonly accepted notion of time by providing his theory of â€Å"presentism,† which basically reduces time into only the present tense. Augustine claims that when people talk in terms of the past, present, and future they’re only really talking about various forms of the present. Augustine tries to explain the various complications that arise when trying to determine the duration of present time. It is difficult to compare two different measurements of time if each period of â€Å"present† time given can be reduced into a minute instance of time that quickly disappears. So, one cannot measure something that has happened, because once it is in the past, it no longer exists. Augustine accepts that their appears to be an irrational aspect of presentism, in that by accepting the present as the only form of time, one would then seemingly have to agree that it wouldn’t make sense to refer to any moment of time occurring in either the past or the future. Augustine rationalizes any reference to the past, by defining it as the minds ability to recall imprinted memories of images left in the mind through the medium of one’s senses. Similarly, the foreseeing of future events is merely the act of prediction based off of things that were already present or previously seen (i.e. the assertion that the sun will rise tomorrow is only based on one’s own previous experience of having already watched the sun rise). Augustine acknowledges the apparent existence of past and future events, and answers the discrepancy by providing alternate terms to use in place of the existing tenses, which are the present of past things, the present of present things, and the present of future things. Furthermore, he redefines the definitions of his terms to mean that the present of past things is memory, the present of present things is attention, and the present of future things is expectation. Augustine continues the problem of measuring time, by recognizing that it would be impossible to measure something, which is not yet real, travels through what doesn’t occupy space, only to become something that is no longer real. He first tries to use the notion that time can be measured in relation to a corporeal object, such as the sun (i.e. a day). Yet, this method is rejected, because if one were to change the time it takes for the sun to rotate the Earth, the time allotted to a day would still remain the same, even if the sun were to set multiple times within a â€Å"days† time frame. Thus, he states that if the motion of any corporeal object is one thing, but the standard in which we measure it is another, time can not based off of any movement of a corporeal object. He then replaces this method of measurement with the example of sound, explaining that because we can measure time based on our voice, surely we can measure any interval of time based off any beginning and end. However, he claims that when measuring any form of sound, we are only measuring the impression the sound left on the mind, and thus are only measuring the impression left, not the time itself. Augustine then deduces that time is only produced from memories of impressions. Thus, time is nothing more than a manmade phenomenon that exists only within the realm of the human mind. He explains that this phenomenon exists within the mind in three different forms of reality. The three realities of the mind are comprised of when the mind expects, attends, or remembers. In other words, that what the mind expects, passes by way of what it attends, into being what it remembers. Furthermore, it is only our attention that endures, through which what is still to be makes its way into the state of where it is no more. Therefore, our attention is continually present, as the future is being passed through the present and changes into the past. Augustine concludes that it is this â€Å"tension† or flow that constitutes time, in that time can only be understood in terms of a manmade psychological phenomenon. For Augustine, his philosophical conclusion that time doesn’t exist in any tangible way but is merely a product of the human mind, justifies the claim that God’s existence is outside the realm of human’s perception of time. Augustine expects that from the acceptance of this notion of time, God’s exemption from time in no way means that he is deficient or more limited than humans in any aspect, but that conversely, he is more powerful. Aquinas Aquinas argues the problem of God’s existence in three ways: First, he addresses whether or not the existence of God is self-evident, second, whether or not his existence can be demonstrated and, finally, whether or not God actually exists. In addressing the issue of whether or not God’s existence is self-evident, Aquinas provides three objections in support of the argument. However, the objections are fundamentally flawed based on the premise that one can intellectually declare God doesn’t exist. However, in response, Aquinas counters this notion by redefining the ways in which something can be self-evident into two different categories. He says something can be self-evident in itself and not to us or both itself and us. Therefore, some concepts involving incorporeal substances can only be learned. Also, because God is His own existence, the proposition is no longer one that is self-evident. Thus, God’s self-evident existence can only be proven through demonstrating the natural things known to us, such as his affects; or, it is simply a prima fascie presumption. Aquinas provides the objections to his assertion, which accepts the fact that not everyone defines happiness or God in the same ways, or that Primal Truths are self-evident. Aquinas then discusses whether or not God’s existence can be proven by demonstration. He provides the objection that it can’t, on the fact that God’s existence is based entirely on faith, and that His essence can only be defined in terms of what He is not. Lastly, that no cause can be demonstrated by an affect that isn’t proportional. Aquinas answers, saying that God’s existence can be demonstrated in two ways. The first being through a priori methods, in which knowledge can be obtained without the need of experience, as seen with Anslem’s Ontological argument which proves the existence of God using a definition. The second way, which for Aquinas is the only legitimate way, is through a posteriori methods, in which any knowledge used must be gained through experience. Aquinas adheres to Aristotelian ideas, claiming that there is nothing in the intellect that didn’t once exist in the senses, and thus rejects that God’s existence could be demonstrated through any means other than those acquired through experience. For Aquinas, every effect must be the result of an inherent cause. So, one can prove God’s existence to be self-evident by demonstrating his existence based off the effects he produces. Aquinas continues by claiming that nothing prevents a man from understanding evidence demonstrated scientifically. Therefore, because God can be defined and proven in terms of his effects, we can conclude that God’s existence can be demonstrated. In order to attack the objections to the next question of whether or not God exists, Aquinas provides the proof of God’s existence with, The First Way, which is one of five. The First Way is the most visible and is based of the a posteriori argument of motion. Aquinas assumes that everyone can accept that within the world some things are in motion (as they can be observed), and that a thing’s motion has to have been caused by something other than itself. In other words, except something in motion already in a state of actuality, no motion can be converted from potentiality to actuality without the help of some outside source. Thus, Aquinas is influenced by the Aristotelian view of change, which is based of the assumption that a substance, defined as being a particular thing with a natural unity that persists yet changes in predictable ways, experiences two different forms of change: accidental and substantial. Accidental change occurs when a substance either loses an accidental form and gains another or gains a form without losing another (i.e. cutting one’s hair). Substantial change is the result of something that turns into a whole new being (i.e. a caterpillar into a butterfly). Thus, something that is potentially something else can’t simultaneously be that thing in actuality at the same time. For instance water, which is actually a liquid but potentially ice, cannot change its form into being ice without something acting upon it. Furthermore, building upon Aristotle’s views of change, Aquinas asserts that the same rule governing change can also be applied to the argument of movement. Therefore, if in accordance with the same rule, something in motion cannot simultaneously be both the mover and moved, since something in motion must be put in motion by something other than itself. Thus, in order to find what caused the first movement to occur, one would need to trace the seminal causes of such movement back to, in effect, infinity. However, Aquinas claims it’s illogical to accept that the initial force could only be defined in relation to an infinite chain of causes. Consequently, the only sound conclusion would have to include the existence of a first mover, such as something along the lines of an unmoved mover. For Aquinas, the existence of an unmoved mover/unchanged changer proves the existence of a force that could only be God. Aquinas concludes that only God could be the force behind the existence of some unmoved mover, if motion is created in two different ways. The first is exemplified by the example of some â€Å"X† (i.e. a leg) moving some â€Å"Y† (i.e. a ball). So, that in this first example, even though â€Å"X† causes the movement of â€Å"Y,† it also follows that â€Å"X† is moving too. Subsequently, Aquinas concludes that given the notion that any â€Å"X† which is able to cause â€Å"Y† to move, while at the same time able to remain motionless, could only be the result of a being â€Å"X† equivalent to a much-elevated force that uniquely has to be God.

The Twilight Saga 3: Eclipse Chapter 9. TARGET

ALICE DROPPED ME OFF IN THE MORNING, IN KEEPING with the slumber party charade. It wouldn't be long until Edward showed up, officially returning from his â€Å"hiking† trip. All of the pretenses were starting to wear on me. I wouldn't miss this part of being human. Charlie peeked through the front window when he heard me slam the car door. He waved to Alice, and then went to get the door for me. â€Å"Did you have fun?† Charlie asked. â€Å"Sure, it was great. Very . . . girlie.† I carried my stuff in, dumped it all at the foot of the stairs, and wandered into the kitchen to look for a snack. â€Å"You've got a message,† Charlie called after me. On the kitchen counter, the phone message pad was propped up conspicuously against a saucepan. Jacob called, Charlie had written. He said he didn't mean it, and that he's sorry. He wants you to call him. Be nice and give him a break. He sounded upset. I grimaced. Charlie didn't usually editorialize on my messages. Jacob could just go ahead and be upset. I didn't want to talk to him. Last I'd heard, they weren't big on allowing phone calls from the other side. If Jacob preferred me dead, then maybe he should get used to the silence. My appetite evaporated. I turned an about face and went to put my things away. â€Å"Aren't you going to call Jacob?† Charlie asked. He was leaning around the living room wall, watching me pick up. â€Å"No.† I started up the stairs. â€Å"That's not very attractive behavior, Bella,† he said. â€Å"Forgiveness is divine.† â€Å"Mind your own business,† I muttered under my breath, much too low for him to hear. I knew the laundry was building up, so after I put my toothpaste away and threw my dirty clothes in the hamper, I went to strip Charlie's bed. I left his sheets in a pile at the top of the stairs and went to get mine. I paused beside the bed, cocking my head to the side. Where was my pillow? I turned in a circle, scanning the room. No pillow. I noticed that my room looked oddly tidy. Hadn't my gray sweatshirt been draped over the low bedpost on the footboard? And I would swear there had been a pair of dirty socks behind the rocking chair, along with the red blouse I'd tried on two mornings ago, but decided was too dressy for school, hanging over the arm. . . . I spun around again. My hamper wasn't empty, but it wasn't overflowing, the way I thought it had been. Was Charlie doing laundry? That was out of character. â€Å"Dad, did you start the wash?† I shouted out my door. â€Å"Um, no,† he shouted back, sounding guilty. â€Å"Did you want me to?† â€Å"No, I got it. Were you looking for something in my room?† â€Å"No. Why?† â€Å"I can't find . . . a shirt. . . .† â€Å"I haven't been in there.† And then I remembered that Alice had been here to get my pajamas. I hadn't noticed that she'd borrowed my pillow, too – probably since I'd avoided the bed. It looked like she had cleaned while she was passing through. I blushed for my slovenly ways. But that red shirt really wasn't dirty, so I went to save it from the hamper. I expected to find it near the top, but it wasn't there. I dug through the whole pile and still couldn't find it. I knew I was probably getting paranoid, but it seemed like something else was missing, or maybe more than one something. I didn't even have half a load here. I ripped my sheets off and headed for the laundry closet, grabbing Charlie's on the way. The washing machine was empty. I checked the dryer, too, half-expecting to find a washed load waiting for me, courtesy of Alice. Nothing. I frowned, mystified. â€Å"Did you find what you were looking for?† Charlie yelled. â€Å"Not yet.† I went back upstairs to search under my bed. Nothing but dust bunnies. I started to dig through my dresser. Maybe I'd put the red shirt away and forgotten. I gave up when the doorbell rang. That would be Edward. â€Å"Door,† Charlie informed me from the couch as I skipped past him. â€Å"Don't strain yourself, Dad.† I pulled the door open with a big smile on my face. Edward's golden eyes were wide, his nostrils flared, his lips pulled back over his teeth. â€Å"Edward?† My voice was sharp with shock as I read his expression. â€Å"What -?† He put his finger to my lips. â€Å"Give me two seconds,† he whispered. â€Å"Don't move.† I stood frozen on the doorstep and he . . . disappeared. He moved so quickly that Charlie wouldn't even have seen him pass. Before I could compose myself enough to count to two, he was back. He put his arm around my waist and pulled me swiftly toward the kitchen. His eyes darted around the room, and he held me against his body as if he were shielding me from something. I threw a glance toward Charlie on the couch, but he was studiously ignoring us. â€Å"Someone's been here,† he murmured in my ear after he pulled me to the back of the kitchen. His voice was strained; it was difficult to hear him over the thumping of the washing machine. â€Å"I swear that no werewolves -† I started to say. â€Å"Not one of them,† he interrupted me quickly, shaking his head. â€Å"One of us.† His tone made it clear that he didn't mean a member of his family. I felt the blood empty from my face. â€Å"Victoria?† I choked. â€Å"It's not a scent I recognize.† â€Å"One of the Volturi,† I guessed. â€Å"Probably.† â€Å"When?† â€Å"That's why I think it must have been them – it wasn't long ago, early this morning while Charlie was sleeping. And whoever it was didn't touch him, so there must have been another purpose.† â€Å"Looking for me.† He didn't answer. His body was frozen, a statue. â€Å"What are you two hissing about in here?† Charlie asked suspiciously, rounding the corner with an empty popcorn bowl in his hands. I felt green. A vampire had been in the house looking for me while Charlie slept. Panic overwhelmed me, closed my throat. I couldn't answer, I just stared at him in horror. Charlie's expression changed. Abruptly, he was grinning. â€Å"If you two are having a fight . . . well, don't let me interrupt.† Still grinning, he put his bowl in the sink and sauntered out of the room. â€Å"Let's go,† Edward said in a low hard voice. â€Å"But Charlie!† The fear was squeezing my chest, making it hard to breathe. He deliberated for a short second, and then his phone was in his hand. â€Å"Emmett,† he muttered into the receiver. He began talking so fast that I couldn't understand the words. It was over in half a minute. He started pulling me toward the door. â€Å"Emmett and Jasper are on their way,† he whispered when he felt my resistance. â€Å"They'll sweep the woods. Charlie is fine.† I let him drag me along then, too panicked to think clearly. Charlie met my frightened eyes with a smug grin, which suddenly turned to confusion. Edward had me out the door before Charlie could say anything. â€Å"Where are we going?† I couldn't stop whispering, even after we were in the car. â€Å"We're going to talk to Alice,† he told me, his volume normal but his voice bleak. â€Å"You think maybe she saw something?† He stared at the road through narrowed eyes. â€Å"Maybe.† They were waiting for us, on alert after Edward's call. It was like walking into a museum, everyone still as statues in various poses of stress. â€Å"What happened?† Edward demanded as soon as we were through the door. I was shocked to see that he was glowering at Alice, his hands fisted in anger. Alice stood with her arms folded tight across her chest. Only her lips moved. â€Å"I have no idea. I didn't see anything.† â€Å"How is that possible?† he hissed. â€Å"Edward,† I said, a quiet reproof. I didn't like him talking to Alice this way. Carlisle interrupted in a calming voice. â€Å"It's not an exact science, Edward.† â€Å"He was in her room, Alice. He could have still been there – waiting for her.† â€Å"I would have seen that.† Edward threw his hands up in exasperation. â€Å"Really? You're sure?† Alice's voice was cold when she answered. â€Å"You've already got me watching the Volturis' decisions, watching for Victoria's return, watching Bella's every step. You want to add another? Do I just have to watch Charlie, or Bella's room, or the house, or the whole street, too? Edward, if I try to do too much, things are going to start slipping through the cracks.† â€Å"It looks like they already are,† Edward snapped. â€Å"She was never in any danger. There was nothing to see.† â€Å"If you're watching Italy, why didn't you see them send -â€Å" â€Å"I don't think it's them,† Alice insisted. â€Å"I would have seen that.† â€Å"Who else would leave Charlie alive?† I shuddered. â€Å"I don't know,† Alice said. â€Å"Helpful.† â€Å"Stop it, Edward,† I whispered. He turned on me, his face still livid, his teeth clenched together. He glared at me for half a second, and then, suddenly, he exhaled. His eyes widened and his jaw relaxed. â€Å"You're right, Bella. I'm sorry.† He looked at Alice. â€Å"Forgive me, Alice. I shouldn't be taking this out on you. That was inexcusable.† â€Å"I understand,† Alice assured him. â€Å"I'm not happy about it, either.† Edward took a deep breath. â€Å"Okay, let's look at this logically. What are the possibilities?† Everyone seemed to thaw out at once. Alice relaxed and leaned against the back of the couch. Carlisle walked slowly toward her, his eyes far away. Esme sat on the sofa in front of Alice, curling her legs up on the seat. Only Rosalie remained unmoving, her back to us, staring out the glass wall. Edward pulled me to the sofa and I sat next to Esme, who shifted to put her arm around me. He held one of my hands tightly in both of his. â€Å"Victoria?† Carlisle asked. Edward shook his head. â€Å"No. I didn't know the scent. He might have been from the Volturi, someone I've never met. . . .† Alice shook her head. â€Å"Aro hasn't asked anyone to look for her yet. I will see that. I'm waiting for it.† Edward's head snapped up. â€Å"You're watching for an official command.† â€Å"You think someone's acting on their own? Why?† â€Å"Caius's idea,† Edward suggested, his face tightening again. â€Å"Or Jane's . . . ,† Alice said. â€Å"They both have the resources to send an unfamiliar face. . . .† Edward scowled. â€Å"And the motivation.† â€Å"It doesn't make sense, though,† Esme said. â€Å"If whoever it was meant to wait for Bella, Alice would have seen that. He – or she – had no intention of hurting Bella. Or Charlie, for that matter.† I cringed at my father's name. â€Å"It's going to be fine, Bella,† Esme murmured, smoothing my hair. â€Å"But what was the point then?† Carlisle mused. â€Å"Checking to see if I'm still human?† I guessed. â€Å"Possible,† Carlisle said. Rosalie breathed out a sigh, loud enough for me to hear. She'd unfrozen, and her face was turned expectantly toward the kitchen. Edward, on the other hand, looked discouraged. Emmett burst through the kitchen door, Jasper right behind him. â€Å"Long gone, hours ago,† Emmett announced, disappointed. â€Å"The trail went East, then South, and disappeared on a side road. Had a car waiting.† â€Å"That's bad luck,† Edward muttered. â€Å"If he'd gone west . . . well, it would be nice for those dogs to make themselves useful.† I winced, and Esme rubbed my shoulder. Jasper looked at Carlisle. â€Å"Neither of us recognized him. But here.† He held out something green and crumpled. Carlisle took it from him and held it to his face. I saw, as it exchanged hands, that it was a broken fern frond. â€Å"Maybe you know the scent.† â€Å"No,† Carlisle said. â€Å"Not familiar. No one I've ever met.† â€Å"Perhaps we're looking at this the wrong way. Maybe it's a coincidence . . . ,† Esme began, but stopped when she saw everyone else's incredulous expressions. â€Å"I don't mean a coincidence that a stranger happened to pick Bella's house to visit at random. I meant that maybe someone was just curious. Our scent is all around her. Was he wondering what draws us there?† â€Å"Why wouldn't he just come here then? If he was curious?† Emmett demanded. â€Å"You would,† Esme said with a sudden, fond smile. â€Å"The rest of us aren't always so direct. Our family is very large – he or she might be frightened. But Charlie wasn't harmed. This doesn't have to be an enemy.† Just curious. Like James and Victoria had been curious, in the beginning? The thought of Victoria made me tremble, though the one thing they seemed certain of was that it had not been her. Not this time. She would stick to her obsessed pattern. This was just someone else, a stranger. I was slowly realizing that vampires were much bigger participants in this world than I'd once thought. How many times did the average human cross paths with them, completely unaware? How many deaths, obliviously reported as crimes and accidents, were really due to their thirst? How crowded would this new world be when I finally joined it? The shrouded future sent a shiver down my spine. The Cullens pondered Esme's words with varying expressions. I could see that Edward did not accept her theory, and that Carlisle very much wanted to. Alice pursed her lips. â€Å"I don't think so. The timing of it was too perfect. . . . This visitor was so careful to make no contact. Almost like he or she knew that I would see. . . .† â€Å"He could have other reasons for not making contact,† Esme reminded her. â€Å"Does it really matter who it was?† I asked. â€Å"Just the chance that someone was looking for me . . . isn't that reason enough? We shouldn't wait for graduation.† â€Å"No, Bella,† Edward said quickly. â€Å"It's not that bad. If you're really in danger, we'll know.† â€Å"Think of Charlie,† Carlisle reminded me. â€Å"Think of how it would hurt him if you disappeared.† â€Å"I am thinking of Charlie! He's the one I'm worried about! What if my little guest had happened to be thirsty last night? As long as I'm around Charlie, he's a target, too. If anything happened to him, it would be all myfault!† â€Å"Hardly, Bella,† Esme said, patting my hair again. â€Å"And nothing will happen to Charlie. We're just going to have to be more careful.† â€Å"More careful?† I repeated in disbelief. â€Å"It's all going to be fine, Bella,† Alice promised; Edward squeezed my hand. And I could see, looking at all of their beautiful faces one by one, that nothing I could say was going to change their minds. It was a quiet ride home. I was frustrated. Against my better judgment, I was still human. â€Å"You won't be alone for a second,† Edward promised as he drove me to Charlie's. â€Å"Someone will always be there. Emmett, Alice, Jasper . . .† I sighed. â€Å"This is ridiculous. They'll get so bored, they'll have to kill me themselves, just for something to do.† Edward gave me a sour look. â€Å"Hilarious, Bella.† Charlie was in a good mood when we got back. He could see the tension between me and Edward, and he was misinterpreting it. He watched me throw together his dinner with a smug smile on his face. Edward had excused himself for a moment, to do some surveillance, I assumed, but Charlie waited till he was back to pass on my messages. â€Å"Jacob called again,† Charlie said as soon as Edward was in the room. I kept my face empty as I set the plate in front of him. â€Å"Is that a fact?† Charlie frowned. â€Å"Don't be petty, Bella. He sounded really low.† â€Å"Is Jacob paying you for all the P.R., or are you a volunteer?† Charlie grumbled incoherently at me until the food cut off his garbled complaint. Though he didn't realize it, he'd found his mark. My life was feeling a lot like a game of dice right now – would the next roll come up snake eyes? What if something did happen to me? It seemed worse than petty to leave Jacob feeling guilty about what he'd said. But I didn't want to talk to him with Charlie around, to have to watch my every word so I didn't let the wrong thing slip. Thinking about this made me jealous of Jacob and Billy's relationship. How easy it must be when you had no secrets from the person you lived with. So I would wait for the morning. I most likely wasn't going to die tonight, after all, and it wouldn't hurt him to feel guilty for twelve more hours. It might even be good for him. When Edward officially left for the evening, I wondered who was out in the downpour, keeping an eye on Charlie and me. I felt awful for Alice or whoever else it might be, but still comforted. I had to admit it was nice, knowing I wasn't alone. And Edward was back in record time. He sang me to sleep again and – aware even in unconsciousness that he was there – I slept free of nightmares. In the morning, Charlie left to go fishing with Deputy Mark before I was up. I decided to use this lack of supervision to be divine. â€Å"I'm going to let Jacob off the hook,† I warned Edward after I'd eaten breakfast. â€Å"I knew you'd forgive him,† he said with an easy smile. â€Å"Holding grudges is not one of your many talents.† I rolled my eyes, but I was pleased. It seemed like Edward really was over the whole anti-werewolf thing. I didn't look at the clock until after I'd dialed. It was a little early for calls, and I worried that I would wake Billy and Jake, but someone picked up before the second ring, so he couldn't have been too far from the phone. â€Å"Hello?† a dull voice said. â€Å"Jacob?† â€Å"Bella!† he exclaimed. â€Å"Oh, Bella, I'm so sorry!† he tripped over the words as he hurried to get them out. â€Å"I swear I didn't mean it. I was just being stupid. I was angry – but that's no excuse. It was the stupidest thing I've ever said in my life and I'm sorry. Don't be mad at me, please? Please. Lifetime of servitude up for grabs – all you have to do is forgive me.† â€Å"I'm not mad. You're forgiven.† â€Å"Thank you,† he breathed fervently. â€Å"I can't believe I was such a jerk.† â€Å"Don't worry about that – I'm used to it.† He laughed, exuberant with relief. â€Å"Come down to see me,† he begged. â€Å"I want to make it up to you.† I frowned. â€Å"How?† â€Å"Anything you want. Cliff diving,† he suggested, laughing again. â€Å"Oh, there's a brilliant idea.† â€Å"I'll keep you safe,† he promised. â€Å"No matter what you want to do.† I glanced at Edward. His face was very calm, but I was sure this was not the time. â€Å"Not right now.† â€Å"He's not thrilled with me, is he?† Jacob's voice was ashamed, rather than bitter, for once. â€Å"That's not the problem. There's . . . well, there's this other problem that's slightly more worrisome than a bratty teenage werewolf. . . .† I tried to keep my tone joking, but I didn't fool him. â€Å"What's wrong?† he demanded. â€Å"Um.† I wasn't sure what I should tell him. Edward held his hand out for the phone. I looked at his face carefully. He seemed calm enough. â€Å"Bella?† Jacob asked. Edward sighed, holding his hand closer. â€Å"Do you mind speaking to Edward?† I asked apprehensively. â€Å"He wants to talk to you.† There was a long pause. â€Å"Okay,† Jacob finally agreed. â€Å"This should be interesting.† I handed the phone to Edward; I hoped he could read the warning in my eyes. â€Å"Hello, Jacob,† Edward said, perfectly polite. There was a silence. I bit my lip, trying to guess how Jacob would answer. â€Å"Someone was here – not a scent I know,† Edward explained. â€Å"Has your pack come across anything new?† Another pause, while Edward nodded to himself, unsurprised. â€Å"Here's the crux, Jacob. I won't be letting Bella out of my sight till I get this taken care of. It's nothing personal -â€Å" Jacob interrupted him then, and I could hear the buzz of his voice from the receiver. Whatever he was saying, he was more intense than before. I tried unsuccessfully to make out the words. â€Å"You might be right -,† Edward began, but Jacob was arguing again. Neither of them sounded angry, at least. â€Å"That's an interesting suggestion. We're quite willing to renegotiate. If Sam is amenable.† Jacob's voice was quieter now. I started chewing on my thumbnail as I tried to read Edward's expression. â€Å"Thank you,† Edward replied. Then Jacob said something that caused a surprised expression to flicker across Edward's face. â€Å"I'd planned to go alone, actually,† Edward said, answering the unexpected question. â€Å"And leave her with the others.† Jacob's voice rose in pitch, and it sounded to me like he was trying to be persuasive. â€Å"I'll try to consider it objectively,† Edward promised. â€Å"As objectively as I'm capable of.† The pause was shorter this time. â€Å"That's not a half-bad idea. When? . . . No, that's fine. I'd like a chance to follow the trail personally, anyway. Ten minutes . . . Certainly,† Edward said. He held the phone out to me. â€Å"Bella?† I took it slowly, feeling confused. â€Å"What was that all about?† I asked Jacob, my voice peeved. I knew it was juvenile, but I felt excluded. â€Å"A truce, I think. Hey, do me a favor,† Jacob suggested. â€Å"Try to convince your bloodsucker that the safest place for you to be – especially when he leaves – is on the reservation. We're well able to handle anything.† â€Å"Is that what you were trying to sell him?† â€Å"Yes. It makes sense. Charlie's probably better off here, too. As much as possible.† â€Å"Get Billy on it,† I agreed. I hated that I was putting Charlie within the range of the crosshairs that always seemed to be centered on me. â€Å"What else?† â€Å"Just rearranging some boundaries, so we can catch anyone who gets too near Forks. I'm not sure if Sam will go for it, but until he comes around, I'll keep an eye on things.† â€Å"What do you mean by ‘keep an eye on things'?† â€Å"I mean that if you see a wolf running around your house, don't shoot at it.† â€Å"Of course not. You really shouldn't do anything . . . risky, though.† He snorted. â€Å"Don't be stupid. I can take care of myself.† I sighed. â€Å"I also tried to convince him to let you visit. He's prejudiced, so don't let him give you any crap about safety. He knows as well as I do that you'd be safe here.† â€Å"I'll keep that in mind.† â€Å"See you in a few,† Jacob said. â€Å"You're coming up?† â€Å"Yeah. I'm going to get the scent of your visitor so we can track him if he comes back.† â€Å"Jake, I really don't like the idea of you tracking -â€Å" â€Å"Oh please, Bella,† he interrupted. Jacob laughed, and then hung up.